5 facts about applying the delphi techniqe
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christineswart07:
oh! i got it, thanks!
the answer was: The essential steps in a traditional anonymous Delphi study are as follows:
Articulate a problem.
Ask participants to provide potential solutions through a series of carefully designed questionnaires. There may be a specific time horizon over which the solutions are to be based, e.g., for 50 years in cases of scientific breakthroughs.
Articulate a problem.
Ask participants to provide potential solutions through a series of carefully designed questionnaires. There may be a specific time horizon over which the solutions are to be based, e.g., for 50 years in cases of scientific breakthroughs.
Participants complete the first questionnaire anonymously and independently.
The results of the first questionnaire are tabulated at a central location, transcribed, reproduced, and forwarded to each participant.
The results of the first questionnaire are tabulated at a central location, transcribed, reproduced, and forwarded to each participant.
After reviewing the initial results, members submit new solutions.
They may make new estimates, often based on a 50-50 probability, as to whether each breakthrough will occur earlier or later than predicted by the other participants. Or, they might suggest that the events predicted may not occur at all and explain why they feel that way. In any case, each round of results invariably triggers new resolutions.
They may make new estimates, often based on a 50-50 probability, as to whether each breakthrough will occur earlier or later than predicted by the other participants. Or, they might suggest that the events predicted may not occur at all and explain why they feel that way. In any case, each round of results invariably triggers new resolutions.
The submission of new solutions based on reiterations of the questionnaire process is repeated until the participants reach a consensus.
Generally, three to four cycles of the process result in a consensus among the participants.
Generally, three to four cycles of the process result in a consensus among the participants.
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