60% of goan population is in urban areas give reason.
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Goa’s urban population is set to rise dramatically over the next 16 years, with 88% of the state’s residents expected to live in towns and cities. Currently, 62.5% of Goa lives in urban areas. The sharp spike has been predicted in the Union health ministry’s population projection report 2011-2036, released last week.
According to the 2011 census — the latest available one — 9.2 lakh people live in urban areas. By 2036, this figure will be 14.7 lakh, with 90% of all males and 86.6% of all females in the state living in urban settlements.
The report clubs Goa with mainly Union territories, as they comprise 1% of the country’s population. For these regions, a different method has been used to project future populations.
As per the 2011 census, there are two criteria for an urban area — 75% of the male main working population must be engaged in non-agricultural pursuits, and the population density should be over 400 persons per sq km.
Also, urban areas comprise all locations within a municipality, corporation, cantonment board or notified town area committee. Nationally, the urban population is 31.8%, and is expected to surpass 38% by 2036.
Meanwhile, the report said that Goa’s population is set to be around 16.6 lakh by 2036. As per the 2011 census, that figure stands at 14.6 lakh. However, a statistician said that this grown prediction may not be accurate.
The report has estimated Goa’s 2036 population using a method based on data pertaining to the state’s growth rate during previous census surveys from 1981 to 2011.
“The mathematical method used for regions with smaller populations simply bases the projections of population size on past growth performance,” he said. “For the bigger states, population projection is done based on the component method of calculation, which is more reliable. The mathematical method is used where limited data on population size in the past is available.”
He also said that this projection may reflect only the natural growth rate, and not account for in-migration.
Goa’s fertility rate, according to the 2011 census, is 1.7. The government of India’s norm is two children per family, or, the total fertility rate (TFR) is 2.1
TFR is the average number of children per women in the 15-35 age group. Also, Goa’s population of children between 0-9 is the lowest in the country.
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