A diagnostic test for a certain disease in 95 percent accurate, in that if a person has the disease, it will detect it with a probability of 0.95, and if a person does not have the disease, it will give a negative result with a probability 0.95. Suppose that only 0.5 percent of the population has the disease in question. A person is chosen at random from this population. The test indicates that this person has the disease. What is the (conditional) probability that he or she does have the disease?
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A diagnostic test has a probability 0.95 of giving a positive result when applied to a person suffering from a certain disease, and a probability 0.10 of giving a positive when applied to a non- suffering. It is estimated that 0.5% of the population are suffers. Suppose that the test is applied to a person about whom we have no relevant information relating to the desease (apparts from the fact that he/she comes from this populations). positive, O probability that given a negative results, the person is a non- suffer, let the noncon will be diagnosed wrongly
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