A die is thrown 60 times and the number 6 is obtained 10 times. Now, if the die is thrown at random, what is the probability of getting the number 6?
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Solution to this problem is based on our knowledge of the nature of the die.
Case 1. Under the assumption that the die is unbiased,
the outcome in any throw is independent of the outcome in any other throw. Hence the Probability (of getting a 5 in the 61st throw given that 60 throws resulted in a 5, 14 times ) =P(getting a 5 in the 61st throw) = 1/6 .
Case 2. If the nature of the die is unknown, it is reasonable to estimate that the probability of getting a 5 in any throw, based on the given sample = 14/60 = 7/30. Hence P(getting a 5 in the 61st throw) = 7/30 .
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