Question

a) Jack is an active tennis player. He wins the first place 80% of the time in his school. Still, he likes his leisure, he only practises half of the time in the tournament he attends. Nevertheless, when he does practise, he is 95% likely to win.

i. Assuming he wins the first place this time, how likely is it he practised?

(7%)

ii. If someone estimates the above to be 72%, what error are they committing? Explain. (3%)

b) How do gambling fallacy and hot hand relate to representativeness? Provide examples to illustrate. In what way are they different? (7%)​

Answer 1

some one estimates the above to be