. A local bank is reviewing its credit card policy with a view toward recalling some of its credit cards. In the past approximately 5% of cardholders have defaulted and the bank has been unable to collect the outstanding balance. Hence, Management has established a prior probability of 0.05 that any particular cardholder will default. The bank has further found that the probability of missing one or more monthly payments is 0.20 for customers who do not default. Of Course, the probability of missing one or more payments for those who default is 1. Given that a customer has missed a monthly payment, compute the posterior probability that the customer will default.
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