A new analysis has determined that the threat of global warming
can still be greatly diminished if nations cut emissions of heat-
trapping green-house gases by 70% this century. The analysis
was done by scientists at the National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR). While global temperatures would rise, the
most dangerous potential aspects of climate change, including
massive losses of Arctic sea ice and permafrost and significant
sea-level rise. could be partially avoided.
"This research indicates that we can no longer avoid significant
warming during this century," said NCAR scientist Warren
Washington, the study paper's lead author. "But, if the world
were to implement this level of emission cuts, we could stabilise
the threat of climate change", he added.
Average global temperatures have warmed by close to 1°C since
the pre-industrial era. Much of the warming is due to human-
produced emissions of greenhouse gases, predominantly
carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas has increased from a pre-
industrial level of about 284 parts per million (ppm) in the
atmosphere to more than 380 ppm today. With research
showing that additional warming of about 1°C may be the
threshold for dangerous climate change, the European Union has
called for dramatic cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases.
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