Question

A note on agricultural production in india during 1955-78

Answer 1

The paper examines changes in the performance of agricultural production in India, in the past 25 years. The summary measures are made by fitting exponential trend functions to the index numbers (with the triennium ending 1969-70 as base), of area and yield rates of major crops. A priori judgement is used to omit deviant observations from the time-series before fitting a trend line to it. During the entire period (1955-78), total agricultural production in India was estimated to grow at an average rate of 2.48% per year. In the peak years, it was 2.59%. It was higher (at 2.95%) during the ten years ending 1964/65 than during the subsequent 13 years (2.42%). The sustained growth of foodgrains production (2.70%) during the entire period was due entirely to cereals (2.91%). Pulses as a group showed no increasing trend in production. The differential growth rates between cereals and other crops are explained by a greater rate of increase in the area under cereals than under other crops. The general performance of agricultural production improved during the seventies. The high rate of growth in yield rate and production of cereals is attributed to irrigation and/or high-yielding seeds and other associated inputs. A higher growth rate of cereal or total agricultural production than in the past is difficult to achieve or sustain.
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