A polling organization randomly selects 1,000 registered voters to estimate the proportion of a large population that intends to vote for a certain movie celebrity in an upcoming election.Althought it is not known by the polling organization ,the actual proportion of the population that prefers the celebrity is 0.46.
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During an election year, we see articles in the newspaper that state confidence intervals in terms of proportions or percentages. For example, a poll for a particular candidate running for president might show that the candidate has 40% of the vote within three percentage points (if the sample is large enough). Often, election polls are calculated with 95% confidence, so, the pollsters would be 95% confident that the true proportion of voters who favored the candidate would be between 0.37 and 0.43: (0.40 – 0.03,0.40 + 0.03).
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