A short term insurance company receives three motor vehicle claims, on average, per day. Assume that the daily claims follow a Poisson Process.
a) what is the probability that more than four but less than eight motor vehicle claims will be received on any given day?
b) what is the probability that more than two motor vehicle claim is received over any given period of three working days?
Answers
Answer:
Since opening two years ago, Avonford bypass has seen more than its fair share of accidents but last
night was way beyond that ever experienced before. There were no less than 4 separate accidents
during the hours of darkness. And it was full moon!!
Was it, we wonder, full moon madness? Or was it just one of those statistical quirks that happen from
time to time?
Our Astrology expert, Jessie Manning told us that this was only to be expected when the moon
dominates Saturn.
However, the local vicar, the Rev Paul Cheney took a different view. “We must be careful of
jumping to the wrong conclusions” he said when we telephoned him this morning. “This is a load of
dangerous rubbish that will lead more vulnerable people to believe dangerous things. I am not a
Statistician so I cannot tell you what the chances are of there being 4 accidents in one evening, but I
reckon that it is a statistical possibility”.
Answer:
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