Question

An investor in Apple is worried the latest management earnings forecast is too aggressive and the company will fall short.

His favorite analyst that covers Apple is going to release his report on Apple the week before the earnings announcement.

Report stands for the analyst's report, and Forecast stands for the earnings announcement.

Prior Probabilities

Conditional Probabilities

P(Good Report) = 0.2

P(Below Forecast | Good Report) = 0.1

P(Medium Report) = 0.5

P(Below Forecast | Medium Report) = 0.4

P(Bad Report) = 0.3

P(Below Forecast | Bad Report) = 0.9

What is the probability the earnings announcement is below the forecast?

Round your answer to two decimal places.

Answer 1

Answer:

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