An oil exploration firm plans to drill four holes. It is assumed that the probability of oil yeid from each hole is 1/5. Since the holes are in quite different locations, the outcome of drilling one holes is statistically independent of that of drilling any other holes. What is the probability that two or more holes probability that two or more
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The probability is .115.
If the firm can only remain in business if two or Inore holes produce oil, then the likelihood that it will remain in business equals I minus the likelihood that the number of holes that result in oil will be 0 or 1
Probability that the number of successes is 0 or 1 -
P(0 or l) = P(0) + P(1) = 6!/ 0!6! (.9`6) + 0!6!/1!5!
Probability that firm will be able to stay in business = 1 -.885 = .115.
Expected value of number of holes yielding oil =
6 x 0.1 = 0.6
Thus, the probability is .115.
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