Article on effect of pandemic on modern warfare.
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As news of the global spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged, global financial markets reacted pessimistically and behaved in ways not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. But fully understanding the potential future economic impact of the virus which leads to this disease remains difficult – because spread of a disease on this scale is unprecedented in the modern world.
The closest parallel is the 1918 influenza pandemic, popularly known as the Spanish flu (because it was first reported in Spanish newspapers). So what are the lessons from this historical pandemic for policymakers today?
The 1918 flu was the last truly global pandemic, its potency exacerbated in an era before the existence of international public health bodies such as the World Health Organisation. About one-third of the world’s population caught this acute respiratory tract infection.
Conservative estimates put the death toll at 20 million, but it could have been more in the region of 50 million. By comparison, nine million people died in combat during the entirely of the first world war.
Probably about 2-3% of those who caught this RNA virus ended up dying, but much of the mortality was the result of complications – such as pneumonia – rather than the flu itself. There were several waves of flu and most deaths occurred within a week of each outbreak. The last outbreaks, in 1919, took place a year after the disease was first identified.
The pandemic spread globally because of the particular set of circumstances in which it first arose. The first world war had just ended and entire armies were being demobilised, returning home with the disease. Outbreaks spread along major transportation routes.
Much of the world’s population was already weak and susceptible to disease because of wartime strains, especially in Germany. To make matters worse, there was an absence in transparency and little policy coordination. Wartime media censorship was still in force and governments were preoccupied with planning for the peace.
Those who perished were typically in the prime of their lives, between 15 and 40 years of age. Aside from these deaths, exposure to the flu had serious permanent long-term physical and mental health consequences on many survivors, especially the very young. There were also immediate and long-term consequences for the economy.
Urban populations proved particularly susceptible to this strain of flu, partly because of pollution. Researchers recently found that many more people died in the more polluted cities in 1918 relative to less polluted urban areas, suggesting a direct link between air pollution and influenza infection.