Article to be written on the topic 'India in the time of crisis'.
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India is easing the restrictions of the Covid-19 lockdown that started on March 24, although details on lockdown 4.0 are still unknown. As the Modi government apparently prepares to phase out the economic straitjacket in the upcoming period, the question is: will India’s economic recovery be V, U or even L-shaped? In this article, we describe two possible exit trajectories: a rapid recovery after a successful lockdown period, or structural economic damage during prolonged social distancing measures. We discuss the labor, capital and productivity mechanisms underlying these trajectories and estimate the economic costs for individual Indians in 2025
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