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Corona-Virus: A global threat
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In many infectious diseases, the immune system’s reaction to a virus, bacteria, or other pathogen can cause greater harm to the infected individual than the pathogen itself. Sepsis is a deadly example of this phenomenon. Triggered by an infection, the immune system overreacts, releasing chemicals called cytokines that make blood vessels become leaky. That can ultimately reduce oxygen delivery to vital organs, which may cause organ failure. Sepsis kills more than 10 million people a year.
The Covid-19 epidemic is something like sepsis: the reaction by the media and government is likely to produce more harm to societies around the globe than the virus, possibly for many years to come.
I’m not trying to downplay the impact of this virus, officially known as SARS-Cov-2. Fever, cough, and shortness of breath are the primary symptoms. They can appear two to 14 days after exposure, though many people infected with the virus don’t experience any symptoms at all. Based on the data we have so far, the virus appears to be more deadly than influenza (flu) virus.
Most people who develop Covid-19 and seek medical attention won’t be tested for it, at least not early on, because of the shortage of testing kits and confusion around where to send people who are showing symptoms. Mixed messaging from the government, media reports, and even employers complicates testing for the virus.
As I write this, about 5,700 people have died worldwide from Covid-19 and that number is growing daily. The CDC reports that adults over age 60 and people who have severe underlying chronic medical conditions, like heart disease or lung disease or diabetes, seem to be at higher risk for developing more serious complications from the virus.
Ever since China decided to restrict personal movements, public events, and business activities of its people, media outlets worldwide have revved the fear-based headline machine into overdrive. There are hourly updates of new cases, possible deaths, and official briefings, as well as prognostication about futuMany streets in cities around the world are empty. Flights to and from affected parts of the world have been grounded. Business conferences have been cancelled. Museums are closed. Company headquarters are shuttered. Grocery and drug store shelves are being emptied of cold and flu remedies, hand sanitizer, disinfecting wipes, and anti-inflammatory over-the-counter medications. People are stocking their homes with food, water, and toiletries, preparing for a long quarantine period that may never come.
I believe that most economic losses won’t come from direct sickness or death due to the novel coronavirus, but from what a 2008 World Bank report calls “uncoordinated efforts of […] private individuals to avoid becoming infected.” A slowdown in economic activity driven by fear of the novel coronavirus will cause layoffs and a recession. Without jobs and steady income, individuals and families will have a harder time paying the required deductibles, copays, and premiums required to obtain health care. Hoarding behaviors will compromise scarce resources. Lack of affordable options results in less medical care, which will increase the number of avoidable illness and death over a longer time frame.
We have learned to live with the flu, which can cause up to 80,000 deaths a year in the U.S. and between 300,000 and 650,000 worldwide. It doesn’t invoke widespread fear, dread, and hysteria. Life goes on. People go out in public, eat at restaurants, drink in bars, fly in planes, take mass transit, attend sporting events, and congregate in other large indoor settings.
We cope with it by washing our hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, avoiding close contact with people who are sick, and covering coughs and sneezes.
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