Question

Assignment 1
Q.1 a) A manufacturer of critical components for two-wheelers in the automotive sector is interested in forecasting the trend of demand during the next year as a key input to its annual planning exercise. Information in the past sales is available for the last three years is in the below table. Extract the trend component of the time series data and use it f or predicting the future demand of the components.
Period
Actual Demand
Year 1: Q1
360
Year 1 : Q2
438
Year 1: Q3
359
Year 1: Q4
406
Year 2: Q1
393
Year 2: Q2
465
Year 2: Q3
387
Year 2: Q4
464
Year 3: Q1
505
Year 3: Q2
618
Year 3: Q3
443
Year 3: Q4
540



b) Further, extract the seasonal component and adjusted the forecast obtained in part a) for seasonality.

Answer 1

year.3Q2 443isyddjgdbj

Answer 2

Answer:

HI I also did not know the answer, but I solved and got it hope it helps you

a) The trend is:

yt = 346.621 + 15.622*t

The future demand of the components is:

Year Quarter Forecast

4 1 549.712

4 2 565.334

4 3 580.957

4 4 596.579

(b) The seasonal components are:

Quarter Forecast

1 0.9850

2 1.1478

3 0.8717

4 0.9956

The future demand of the components is:

Year Quarter Forecast

4 1 541.457

4 2 648.887

4 3 506.393

4 4 593.936

Step-by-step explanation: