Bob has an important meeting tomorrow and he has to reach office on time in morning. His general mode of transport is by car and on a regular day (no car trouble) the probability that he will reach on time is 0.3 . The probability that he might have car trouble is 0.2 . If the car runs into trouble he will have to take a train and only 2 trains out of the available N trains will get him to office on time.
What are the chances that he will reach office on time tomorrow?
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There are two cases, either
1.car not in to trouble so he reach office.
2.car went to trouble so he took train(2/N)
1.if Pot is on time and Pct is car trouble then Probability of reaching office is (Pot * (1-Pct)) 1-Pct because car is not troubles
2.If Pct car went to trouble so he has to catch the train Pct * 2/N
By adding those [Pot*(1-Pct) + Pct*2/N] will get the results.
I am giving advising Since only 30% chance to reach office and 20% to car trouble just go to railway station directly and pick the first train :) if he want to reach office Pot. else: enjoy the meal and do Cisco Webex :)
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