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china will become superpower insert article​

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As the U.S. well knows, it’s expensive to be a superpower. The costs of maintaining a large military, leading diplomatic missions and providing aid to foreign countries all add up. The more China extends itself around the globe, the heavier the burden will be. While the country has deep pockets, there are economic and financial challenges at home, and if things go belly up domestically it could put strains on President Xi Jinping’s ambitions. As the Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote in “The Art of War” two and a half millennia ago, “first count the cost.”

So a key question for China is: What kind of great power does it want to become? Surely, China wants to dominate in Asia, its backyard. At that regional level, projections of the Middle Kingdom’s economic growth, population size and defense spending suggest it will have outstripped the U.S. by 2030.

Index of GDP, military expenditure and working age forecastsBut being a regional great power isn’t the same as being a global superpower—a concept first used to describe the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the U.S. Here’s one definition:

“A ‘superpower’ is a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon,” writes Alice Lyman Miller, China scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and a former CIA analyst.

That requires excelling in multiple areas of power projection: economic, military and “soft” (political and cultural).