climate change: myth or reality. 200:500 words.
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The statement by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in late 1995 that "...the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate," (IPCC, 1995) set off a firestorm of debate in the economic and political circles on the validity, impacts, and societal responses to climate change. Climate change and climate variability have been thrust further into the public debate with recent attention to El Nino and emerging projections of global warming, culminating with the recent discussions and accord in Kyoto Japan (COP-3, 1997). The process that led to the IPCC statement was a multi-national, multi-disciplinary compilation of climate change science by over 400 contributing authors from 26 countries, reviewed by over 500 scientists from 40 countries, and approved at a meeting in Madrid in November 1995 by 177 delegates from 96 countries. That consensus (although not universal) agreement was achieved is a remarkable result. However, a few climate scientists have raised a voice of opposition to the consensus that warming is occurring and that humans are partially responsible. As a result, the business community, policy makers, and the general public have been receiving conflicting messages about the level of uncertainty on various elements of the global warming debate.
The present paper seeks to clarify this issue by summarizing the facts, projections, and uncertainties relating to global climate change. A few myths that have arisen will be identified, and some impediments to further progress in narrowing uncertainties will be outlined. The goal of this paper is to clarify the confidence and uncertainty of current scientific understanding on global climate change so that the debate on this issue can focus on the economic, political, and ethical issues such as responsibility of developed countries for past emissions and the responsibility of the present generation to allow future generations equal access to earth resources to meet their societal needs.
In a recent article in Science magazine (Mahlman, 1997), Dr. J. D. Mahlman senior climate researcher at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, NJ outlined the facts and uncertainties of our understanding about the global climate system and the role of humans in global warming. The following statements are drawn largely from points made in his article.