COVID-19: The Realities and Challenges of the New Normal
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CoVID-19 started infecting people in the city of Wuhan, China in mid-December of 2019. Within a month, more than ten thousand people were infected and hundreds had died. The death rate was about 16% in the first two weeks but reduced to about 4% by mid-February and currently stands at about 2%. The initial outbreak caused many people to die who would have survived if they had received medical treatment. Unfortunately, the Wuhan medical system was unable to treat the extremely large number of seriously ill people seeking help. Simply put, the large number of seriously ill people greatly exceeded hospital capacity. Consequently, many people who needed basic care for dehydration and fever could not find care. China now reports a death rate of 0.7% outside of Hubei Province.
A death rate of 2% is about 13 times greater than the incidence of death from seasonal flu. During the last flu season, 2018/2019, CDC reports 35 million Americans caught the flu and about 56,000 people died establishing a death rate of 0.15%. If the same number of Americans, 35 million, became infected with CoVID-19 and the death rate was actually 2%, CoVID-19 could be responsible for 700,000 deaths. However, there are several reasons to believe that the death rate is much less than 2%.
As of 10 March 2020, when this essay was prepared, there were about 100,000 confirmed cases and about 4,000 deaths for a death rate of 4% (but this includes the data from Wuhan). Data from many countries now reporting show that about 80% of infected people experience mild to moderate symptoms. It is likely that a large number of infected people with mild or very mild symptoms are not represented in the data because they never felt sick. The missing cases skew the death rate towards a higher rate. So, the 2% death rate is probably high due to the “non reports” of people simply not accounted for in the data.
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