D. Long answer questions
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sectional, cross-national (US and UK) industry data on narrowly-defined product markets.
The process by which industries evolve to their static outcomes is found to occur
similarly for the same industry in the different countries. Some industries have strong shakeouts
in firm numbers and others not, confirming findings of Gort and Klepper (1982) on the first large
set of alternative data. In industries with shakeouts entry eventually nearly ceases, but in
industries without shakeouts entry remains high. Even in strong shakeouts there is not
necessarily a rise in firms’ rate of exit coincident with the shakeout, confirming that shakeouts
are not driven by single technological events. The theory and evidence explain why early mover
advantage is tied up with the spiral of firm advantage that yields shakeouts, so that only in
industries with substantial shakeouts do early movers experience low exit rates relative to
incumbents.
Technological patterns conform to those expected if technological opportunity drives
typical industry outcomes. Leading early entrants dominate relevant patents in industries with
substantial shakeouts, and patenting enhances survival especially in industries with shakeouts.
Thus technological innovation seems typically to drive alternative industry competitive
dynamics, through a spiral of firm advantage in industries with high opportunity for product
improvement and process innovation.
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