Due to a recession, the ination rate expected for the coming year is only 3 percent. however, the ination rate in year 2 and thereafter is expected to be constant at some level above 3 percent. assume that the real risk-free rate is r* 2% for all maturities and that the expectations theory fully explains the yield curve, so there are no maturity premiums. if 3-year treasury notesyield2percentagepointsmorethan1-yearnotes,whatinationrateisexpected after year 1?
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Because of a recession, the inflation rate expected for the coming year is only 3%. However, the inflation rate in Year 2 and thereafter is expected to be constant at some level above 3%. Assume that the real risk-free rate is r* = 2% for all maturities and that there are no maturity premiums. If 3-year Treasury notes yield 2 percentage points more than 1-year notes, what inflation rate is expected after Year 1?
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