due to global warming,the occurrence of High velocity storms in the kashmir valley is
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The local weather and climate of the Himalayas are sensitive and interlinked with global-scale changes in climate, as the hydrology of this region is mainly governed by snow and glaciers. There are clear and strong indicators of climate change reported for the Himalayas, particularly the Jammu and Kashmir region situated in the western Himalayas. In this study, using observational data, detailed characteristics of long- and short-term as well as localized variations in temperature and precipitation are analyzed for these six meteorological stations, namely, Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokarnag, Qazigund, Kupwara and Srinagar during 1980–2016. All of these stations are located in Jammu and Kashmir, India. In addition to analysis of stations observations, we also utilized the dynamical downscaled simulations of WRF model and ERA-Interim (ERA-I) data for the study period. The annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes were analyzed by carrying out Mann–Kendall, linear regression, cumulative deviation and Student's t statistical tests. The results show an increase of 0.8 ∘C in average annual temperature over 37 years (from 1980 to 2016) with higher increase in maximum temperature (0.97 ∘C) compared to minimum temperature (0.76 ∘C). Analyses of annual mean temperature at all the stations reveal that the high-altitude stations of Pahalgam (1.13 ∘C) and Gulmarg (1.04 ∘C) exhibit a steep increase and statistically significant trends. The overall precipitation and temperature patterns in the valley show significant decreases and increases in the annual rainfall and temperature respectively. Seasonal analyses show significant increasing trends in the winter and spring temperatures at all stations, with prominent decreases in spring precipitation. In the present study, the observed long-term trends in temperature () and precipitation (mm year−1) along with their respective standard errors during 1980–2016 are as follows: (i) 0.05 (0.01) and −16.7 (6.3) for Gulmarg, (ii) 0.04 (0.01) and −6.6 (2.9) for Srinagar, (iii) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.69 (4.79) for Kokarnag, (iv) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.13 (3.95) for Pahalgam, (v) 0.034 (0.01) and −5.5 (3.6) for Kupwara, and (vi) 0.01 (0.01) and −7.96 (4.5) for Qazigund. The present study also reveals that variation in temperature and precipitation during winter (December–March) has a close association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Further, the observed temperature data (monthly averaged data for 1980–2016) at all the stations show a good correlation of 0.86 with the results of WRF and therefore the model downscaled simulations are considered a valid scientific tool for the studies of climate change in this region. Though the correlation between WRF model and observed precipitation is significantly strong, the WRF model significantly underestimates the rainfall amount, which necessitates the need for the sensitivity study of the model using the various microphysical parameterization schemes. The potential vorticities in the upper troposphere are obtained from ERA-I over the Jammu and Kashmir region and indicate that the extreme weather event of September 2014 occurred due to breaking of intense atmospheric Rossby wave activity over Kashmir. As the wave could transport a large amount of water vapor from both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and dump them over the Kashmir region through wave breaking, it probably resulted in the historical devastating flooding of the whole Kashmir valley in the first week of September 2014. This was accompanied by extreme rainfall events measuring more than 620 mm in some parts of the Pir Panjal range in the south Kashmir.
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The climate change is the biggest environmental emergency that the earth faces today. This inevitable disaster has a multitude of serious implications for both environment and human society. Efforts are being made to develop a better scientific understanding of this complex problem by generating better future projections of climate change. The climate change has potential implications on different sectors including glaciers and permafrost, rivers, forests, soils, ecosystems, society and economy etc. The state of Jammu and Kashmir is predominantly a mountainous state with all the major Himalayan ranges and Trans-Himalayas adequately represented. Falling in Himalayan region, Jammu and Kashmir has a geographic area 2,22,236 sqkm. Around 20230 sqkm, which comprises 19.95 percent of the geographical area of Jammu and Kashmir, is under the forest cover. The state is divided into three regions: Ladakh, Kashmir Valley and Jammu. The higher regions of the state are covered by Pir Panjal, Karakoram, Zanskar and inner Himalayan ranges of mountains. The increase in temperature has to do with the topography and high altitude. We have seen that warming is higher in Himalayas and other mountainous regions of the globe. Temperature varies from place to place and it is basically a function of location, longitude and altitude. Effects of climate change are already being felt on the ground. Erratic snowfall and snowfall pattern and unusual warm winters are some of the characteristics of the climate change in Jammu and Kashmir. The diverse types of ecosystems and communities, especially the poor rural people, living in the mountains across the state are among the most affected by the climate change. As part of its social responsibility our NGO, ???Samajic Environmental Welfare Association??? (Sewa) working since 1997, conducts many outreach activities/campaigns/camps on regular basis.