E I Nino and its effect on monsoon rain in our countrt
Answers
El Nino refers to the heating up of water in the eastern pacific region which will have a cascading effect on the weather conditions across the world. The theory behind the occurrence and cause of an El Nino hasn't been completely conceptualized yet. Indeed, it is an observation made by Sir Gilbert Walker, the Director General of Observatories in India more than a century back that led to the discovery of this effect. Even though we have learnt a lot about El Nino since then, but there is still a lot left to understand.
The effect an El Nino has on India is probabilistic in nature. Statistically, there are 40% chances that an El Nino will result in a drought situation in India. It implies an El Nino doesn't necessarily result in a drought in India. For example in 1997, an El Nino year, India witnessed an above average rainfall and there are many other years in which an El Nino did not result in a drought in India. So, an El Nino in isolation cannot have a definitive effect on India.
But there is another interesting effect called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), studied by Toshio Yamagata's research group at JAMSTEC. The study found that when waters in the Indian Ocean towards Africa are unusually warm and the waters towards Indonesia are extremely cool, they form a dipole. This is called a positive dipole and a vice versa phenomenon results in a negative dipole. And when a negative dipole is coupled with an El Nino, there is a very high probability that India will face a drought! Sadly, there is a strong chance for occurrence of a negative IOD in the Indian Ocean. So, we can strongly expect a weak monsoon this time. Since, a majority of our agricultural production still depends on monsoons, a weak monsoon night have a trickle down effect and ultimately lead to food inflation.