essay on The best-laid plans go astray
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Sadly, 12 years of stress tests and economic crisis planning never considered the possibility of a pandemic. Let us get a better economic plan in place for the next one.” This thought, stated by John Cochrane in the last sentence of an otherwise unexceptional op-ed, no doubt is a thought that has occurred to many others.
The problem with this comment is its failure to be the least bit realistic. It ignores a basic fact: whatever plans regulators have in place for a financial crisis or for a pandemic causing financial distress or some other event causing financial distress–any plan, that is–will be wrong in important ways.
The current problems in the United States are in no small part due to the CDC and the FDA relying on their own expertise when they are as imperfect as the rest of us. In addition, they did not appreciate the importance of easily accessible, fast tests for the virus. The problems of giving the CDC a monopoly on testing are well documented.
The importance of easily accessible tests for the virus is evident even to politicians who are financing tests that are free to the recipient. Anyone with a relative who might have been exposed and cannot get a test is aware of two things. The person is distressed, not knowing if they have the coronavirus. In addition, if they are considerate, they are self-quarantined when there may be no reason at all to isolate themselves at home.
Similarly, people are less likely to go to restaurants, stores and other public places when other people may have the virus and are not sure of it. While not a cure-all, tests are important. (A vaccine would be even better but that takes more time.)
While “social distancing” would occur even with tests, the absence of tests heightens people’s reasonable concerns about traveling, eating out or working close to other people. While not the only problem due to the coronavirus – cruise ships would have problems even with tests, for example – it is a non-trivial part of the problem.
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