Evaluation of wave forecast in the north indian ocean during extreme conditions and winter monsoon
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ABSTRACT
The accuracy of the operational ocean state forecast system at ESSO-INCOIS during extreme events as well as calm conditions for a lead time of 24, 72 and 144 h is evaluated in this paper. Forecasted wave parameters (significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction) are compared with in situ data for three cyclones (Sidr, Khai Muk and Nisha) that occurred in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Forecasts obtained for 24 and 72 h showed good agreement with in situ data. Error statistics obtained during extreme events (SI < 30%, correlation coefficient > .75) suggests the good quality of the wave forecasts, which could be used for issuing high wave alerts. The two-dimensional energy spectra from the wave model during the Sidr cyclone period showed the capability of the model to simulate wind seas and swells even under cyclonic conditions. During winter monsoon, the error statistics obtained in the BoB suggests, good quality of 24- and 72-h wave forecasts. Thus the wave model is good at simulating the wave conditions for different wave height ranges and for a lead time of up to 72 h and hence a reliable tool for generating operational ocean state forecasts.
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