Question

Examine the effects of climate change on human
migration, identifying reasons why some population groups around the world may choose to
migrate due to reasons related to climate change.

Answer 1

Answer:

EXPLORE THE ISSUE

Global climate patterns have changed over the last century, triggering more extreme weather events including hurricanes, heat waves, and droughts. Looking forward, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that, at the current rate, global temperatures are likely to average 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at some point between 2030 and 2052. Even this seemingly modest increase, which is well within the range of daily variability, will result in cascading impacts on ice sheets, ecosystems, and productive systems that will fundamentally alter habitability when spread over the entire land surface of the planet. The effects will not be spread evenly, and already high latitudes are warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world while drylands are expanding.

Climate can be seen as the envelope in which all economic activities take place, and these changes could spell significant disruptions for modern society, both in low- and high-income settings. Yet humans have the ability to adapt as well as free will, so one must be careful not to engage in a sort of environmental determinism that draws a direct line from projected climate changes to future migration. Instead, climatic circumstances exist as one of several factors that drive the decision by an individual or community to migrate, and may compound those other drivers or be mitigated through policy action or individual circumstance.

This article draws on a growing evidence base for contemporary environmentally induced migration that includes individual case studies, sophisticated statistical analysis, modeling work, and the UK government’s benchmark 2011 Foresight report, Migration and Global Environmental Change. It summarizes key lessons from the evidence and assesses the implications for future migration under climate change.