Fishing has developed in continental shelf
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Answer:
Explanation:Climate change affects marine biological processes from genetic to ecosystem levels [1, 2, 3]. Recent warming in the northeast Atlantic [4, 5] has caused distributional shifts in some fish species along latitudinal and depth gradients [6, 7], but such changes, as predicted by climate envelope models [8], may often be prevented because population movement requires availability of suitable habitat. We assessed the full impacts of warming on the commercially important European continental shelf fish assemblage using a data-driven Eulerian (grid-based) approach that accommodates spatial heterogeneity in ecological and environmental conditions. We analyzed local associations of species abundance and community diversity with climatic variables, assessing trends in 172 cells from records of >100 million individuals sampled over 1.2 million km2 from 1980–2008. We demonstrate responses to warming in 72% of common species, with three times more species increasing in abundance than declining, and find these trends reflected in international commercial landings. Profound reorganization of the relative abundance of species in local communities occurred despite decadal stability in the presence-absence of species. Our analysis highlights the importance of focusing on changes in species abundance in established local communities to assess the full consequences of climate change for commercial fisheries and food security.
Highlights
► Majority of common northeast Atlantic fishes are responding significantly to warming ► Three times more species are increasing with warming than declining ► Local communities have been reorganized despite decadal stability in species composition ► Species range shifts are tip of iceberg compared to modification of local communities
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Results and Discussion
Average global sea surface temperature (SST) increased by 0.7°C over the last 100 years [4] and is predicted to rise by a further 1.5°C to 2.6°C by 2100 [9]. Marine ecosystems in the northeast Atlantic have warmed particularly rapidly, with mean sea temperatures in the North Sea and Celtic-Biscay Shelf regions increasing between 1982 and 2006 by 1.31°C and 0.72°C, respectively [5], four times faster than the global average [4]. Climate warming is affecting marine biological processes from the genetic to ecosystem level of organization, with implications for commercial fisheries and food security [1, 2, 3]. Significant progress has been made with identifying mechanisms by which climate change can affect fish population dynamics [10, 11] in describing shifts in the distributions of some fish species along latitudinal and depth gradients associated with climate change [6, 7, 12] and in developing climate envelope models to predict effects of climate change on future species distributions [8]. To date, however, macroecological analyses of the effects of climate change on marine fish assemblages have not accounted for constraints on distributional shifts due to population dependence on essential habitat, for example, favored substrates, appropriate predator and prey fields, and close proximity to nursery grounds, all of which are often unknown and difficult to quantify. Accommodation of spatial habitat heterogeneity when measuring climate impacts requires an alternative Eulerian (grid-based) approach of analyzing multiple local associations of species abundance and community diversity with climatic variables, controlling for depth and latitude and allowing for complex oceanography.