forcast of a future health condition
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The term prognosis refers to a forecasting of outcomes under no intervention, whilst prediction is used to mean forecasting health outcomes that are associated with some health-related intervention [28, 35]. Syndromic surveillance is another closely related concept that is well known in disease surveillance literature.
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Answer:
The investigators forecast that, compared with 2016, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will account for a greater proportion of years of life lost (YLLs) in all GBD regions by 2040. Globally, they estimated a 4·4-year increase in life expectancy from 2016 to 2040 (95% uncertainty intervals 2·2–6·4 and 2·1–6·4 for men and women, respectively). This increase will be a solid improvement if achieved, and a welcome reduction in between-country inequalities as forecast gains will be greater in those countries with currently lower life expectancy. But for high-income countries it will be a slowing down in gains as the low-hanging fruit of tobacco control is realised and other more difficult risk factors such as obesity remain.1 However, experts have been estimating a slowing of gains or limit to life expectancy for decades, yet global life expectancy has kept increasing linearly2—but surely those large linear increases are likely to slow down soon.3