Question

given the data 63, 64, 66, 67, 67, 69, 71, 72 find the forecast for the ninth period using simple exponential smoothing? use α = 0.3 and initial forecast using simple average.

is it a good forecast???​

Answer 1

Given:

The data is given as

$63,64,66,67,67,69,71,72$

$\alpha =0.3$

To Find:

The forecast for the ninth period using simple exponential smoothing

Step-by-step explanation:

The average is

$Average=\dfrac{63+64+66+67+67+69+71+72}{8}\\=\dfrac{539}{8}\\=67.375$

Use the formula

$F_{t+1}=\alpha D_{t}+(1-\alpha )F_{t}$

put all the values in the above equation the new values are

$F_{2}=66.06$

$F_{3}=65.44\\F_{4}=65.61\\F_{5}=66.63\\F_{6}=66.32\\F_{7}=67.12\\F_{8}=68.27$

$F_{9}=0.3(72)+(1-0.3)68.27\\=69.40.$

The ninth period is $69.40$ .

The data shows increased trend while simple exponential smoothing is used for constant level data and indicates.

The forecast does not looks good.