global warming has resulted in prolonged drought due to scanty rain in your state. you are perturbed and write a diary entry.
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Climate change is real and happening now. The past three
years have been the hottest ever recorded. Average global
temperatures are now one degree Celsius higher than preindustrial
levels, largely due to human activities.
Experts have long predicted that the frequency and intensity of
droughts would increase as a result of climate change,
especially in semi-arid areas.
11 Does the crisis in East Africa fit
this trend? There are two main factors to look at.
Rising temperatures There is mounting evidence that climate change is likely to be contributing to higher temperatures in the region, and that increased temperatures are exacerbating the impacts of drought.12 Temperatures have been consistently higher in East Africa in recent years, part of a trend seen in Africa and around the world. Higher temperatures result in greater evaporation, meaning soil moisture is reduced, reinforcing drier conditions and intensifying the impacts of failed rains. Crops and pasture have less water, and the chance of failed harvests or lack of feed for livestock increases. In pastoral regions like northern Somalia, higher temperatures over the past six months have turned very low rainfall last year into a terrible loss of soil moisture – helping to desiccate all the available fodder for many of Somalia’s pastoralists
Scarce and unpredictable rains Scientific analysis of climate change’s role in reducing rainfall during this and other droughts in the region is less definitive than the link to higher temperatures. But what is clear is that the decline in the long rains over the last three decades is ‘unprecedented in its persistence and intensity from at least 1874’. 13 And it is easy to see in the data that during the March–June rainy seasons, droughts are becoming much more frequent.14 It seems likely climate change is playing a role, and there are an increasing number of studies of the physical processes that might be at play.15 But attribution studies on recent droughts have tended not to indicate a strong influence of climate change on rainfall intensity (see Table 1). Given East Africa is already prone to droughts and has high year-to-year variability in its climate, there is disagreement over what is natural variability and what might be caused by climate change.16 Linking rainfall trends to climate change is a harder task than linking temperature, especially in Africa where historic data is limited. Lack of detection of a link in attribution studies of individual seasonal outcomes does not firmly indicate the fingerprint of climate change is not present.17 It should also be noted that most published research has focused on climate change’s impact on the total amount of rain over a season, rather than changes in within-season rainfall patterns. 18 This is an important gap. Because the amount of total rainfall matters, but when looking at a region dominated by rain-fed agriculture, increasingly erratic rains are also a major problem. Shifts in the beginning and end of the rainy seasons, or dry spells during crucial periods during the growing season can all have serious consequences for crop and livestock production. 19 What about El Niño and La Niña? The 2015 to 2016 El Niño, one of the strongest ever recorded, played a significant role in the drought during that period.20 While a direct connection has not established by the International Panel on Climate Change, an increasing number of scientific assessments claim that climate change may make El Niño stronger and more frequent.21 That question aside, higher temperatures linked to climate change are weakening East Africa’s ability to endure extremes in weather, such as El Niño and La Niña. When these events come amidst higher temperatures and drier conditions, their impacts are stronger.
Rising temperatures There is mounting evidence that climate change is likely to be contributing to higher temperatures in the region, and that increased temperatures are exacerbating the impacts of drought.12 Temperatures have been consistently higher in East Africa in recent years, part of a trend seen in Africa and around the world. Higher temperatures result in greater evaporation, meaning soil moisture is reduced, reinforcing drier conditions and intensifying the impacts of failed rains. Crops and pasture have less water, and the chance of failed harvests or lack of feed for livestock increases. In pastoral regions like northern Somalia, higher temperatures over the past six months have turned very low rainfall last year into a terrible loss of soil moisture – helping to desiccate all the available fodder for many of Somalia’s pastoralists
Scarce and unpredictable rains Scientific analysis of climate change’s role in reducing rainfall during this and other droughts in the region is less definitive than the link to higher temperatures. But what is clear is that the decline in the long rains over the last three decades is ‘unprecedented in its persistence and intensity from at least 1874’. 13 And it is easy to see in the data that during the March–June rainy seasons, droughts are becoming much more frequent.14 It seems likely climate change is playing a role, and there are an increasing number of studies of the physical processes that might be at play.15 But attribution studies on recent droughts have tended not to indicate a strong influence of climate change on rainfall intensity (see Table 1). Given East Africa is already prone to droughts and has high year-to-year variability in its climate, there is disagreement over what is natural variability and what might be caused by climate change.16 Linking rainfall trends to climate change is a harder task than linking temperature, especially in Africa where historic data is limited. Lack of detection of a link in attribution studies of individual seasonal outcomes does not firmly indicate the fingerprint of climate change is not present.17 It should also be noted that most published research has focused on climate change’s impact on the total amount of rain over a season, rather than changes in within-season rainfall patterns. 18 This is an important gap. Because the amount of total rainfall matters, but when looking at a region dominated by rain-fed agriculture, increasingly erratic rains are also a major problem. Shifts in the beginning and end of the rainy seasons, or dry spells during crucial periods during the growing season can all have serious consequences for crop and livestock production. 19 What about El Niño and La Niña? The 2015 to 2016 El Niño, one of the strongest ever recorded, played a significant role in the drought during that period.20 While a direct connection has not established by the International Panel on Climate Change, an increasing number of scientific assessments claim that climate change may make El Niño stronger and more frequent.21 That question aside, higher temperatures linked to climate change are weakening East Africa’s ability to endure extremes in weather, such as El Niño and La Niña. When these events come amidst higher temperatures and drier conditions, their impacts are stronger.
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