How coronavirus will affect the developmental progress of a country??¿
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The economic crisis unleashed by the outbreak of COVID-19 is hurting economies, regardless of income level. The most recent data from UNIDO’s seasonally adjusted Index of Industrial Production (April 2020 vs December 2019) indicate that both lower- and upper middle-income countries have been significantly impacted by COVID-19 (Table 1)Recent data from the Centre for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University show that the spread of the pandemic in terms of case numbers and deaths is quite asymmetric across countries. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, one of the poorest regions in the world, does not seem to have been severely impacted by COVID-19.A study by Noy et al. (2020) finds that the direct costs of the COVID-19 pandemic associated with illness and mortality are lower than the indirect losses caused by the crisis. A low impact of COVID-19 in terms of case numbers and deaths does not necessarily translate into a low economic impact. [1] Many countries are experiencing a recession, even though COVID-19 has not had a serious effect on them in terms of health. Even minor public health events can severely affect firms in lower income countries due to their poor socio-economic conditions (vulnerability) and their weak capacity to respond to crises (resilience). Moreover, in a globalized world, many countries are suffering indirect consequences from value chain disruptions and lower international demand for goods due to widespread recession.
Section 1 presents recent evidence on the current state of industrial production and exports. Section 2 focusses on the impacts of COVID-19 on firms based on the most recent data collected by UNIDO in several Asian countries. Section 3 discusses the policy implications of our findings.
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