How do you evaluate the accuracy of your forecasts in ARIMA? MAPE and errors such this,can be illustrated the accuracy alone?
Answers
Answer:
If it is a short-term forecast, you can more easily check forecasted vs later observed results and look at the distribution of your 'error' over time. (MAPE, as you note, is helpful.) Bias and variance, as well as breaks in the series may become apparent over time. In the meantime, variance estimates may be about all you have. As usual, graphics may be useful.
Answer:
If it is a short-term forecast, you can more easily check forecasted vs later observed results and look at the distribution of your 'error' over time. (MAPE, as you note, is helpful.) Bias and variance, as well as breaks in the series may become apparent over time. In the meantime, variance estimates may be about all you have. As usual, graphics may be useful.
Measurement error is a consideration as well.