How does the national hurricane centre collect information about a hurricane? Mention any three methods.
Answers
Answer:
Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance. A hurricane's possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases. To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models.
Explanation:
Answer:
Explanation:
Every year around April the meteorologist on the news starts talking about how many named storms are predicted for the season and how many hurricanes are expected to make landfall. Scientists can predict the number of named storms and their breakdown by intensity (i.e. the number of hurricanes, tropical storms, intense hurricanes, etc.). They can also predict approximate wind speeds and intensity for sustained winds. These can be easily calculated using elementary statistics. Compared to past seasons, the sustained wind speed follows the Poisson Distribution with fairly consistent accuracy. Named storms are typically predicted based on past occurrences and current measures of factors in the climate. At the beginning of the season these are only labeled as probabilities (Gray, 2006). Scientists cannot say that the third named storm of the season will hit Florida on June 30th. They can only say that there is a five percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the coast from April to November.
Once a hurricane has formed, it can be tracked. Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance. A hurricane’s possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases. To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models. The original best model was CLIPER (Climate and Persistence). It is designed as a statistical regression equation based on past data and current climatological data. This was the major forecasting model used up until the 1980’s. Today it is used primarily for testing and comparing new models. NHC90 and BAM (Beta and Advection Model) are two models based on data gathered by planes. They use measurements taken multiple times in a day, and the models themselves are updated every couple of years. The National Hurricane Center relies heavily on two different international forecasting systems, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office’s global model and the United States Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Predictions Systems (NOAA, 2004). There are many more models used. This list includes only several of the major, most common models used to forecast the movement of storm systems.
The above models are all designed to track the path of a hurricane. Unfortunately, there are far fewer models around that can be used to track the intensity changes of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Intensity models are essential to understanding how dangerous a hurricane will be when it makes landfall. An accurate assessment of storm intensity is necessary to allow people to take the appropriate actions, like boarding up windows and evacuating. The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast Model (SHIFOR) is analogous to CLIPER from above. It employs the same mathematical techniques as CLIPER but it predicts intensity instead of trajectory. The NHC also uses SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme), which uses data from the surface of the ocean to predict any changes in intensity. The RI scheme is one of the newest models, which uses data obtained by SHIPS to calculate the chance of rapid intensification of the hurricane. Only one common system in use today predicts both trajectory and intensity. It is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model designed in the early 1990s. The GFLD model uses a moveable equation to make predictions (NOAA, 2004). As with the trajectory models, these are only some of the most common models available. This list is by no means exclusive. However, there are far fewer good options available to predict the intensity of hurricanes because the reasons behind intensity changes are not fully understood and there are many factors involved.