how does the summer climate in the arid area of Sindh effect the economy of the area
Answers
Executive Summary
This study was commissioned by Oxfam GB to review the impact of climate change on
Pakistan’s rural communities. The findings of the study are remarkably consistent with
global, regional & national climate change projections, and alarming.
It is now well established that emissions due to anthropogenic sources have, over the
last 50–60 years, resulted in the excessive emission of greenhouse gases into the earth’s
atmosphere, increasing its temperature, causing global warming, and changing climate
patterns. While climate change affects lives and livelihoods across the world, its impact
is greatest on the rural poor, especially those households living in areas frequently
struck by natural disasters1, which can destroy the natural resource base of an area. The
close dependence of the rural poor on natural resources makes them most vulnerable to
the impact of climate change. Given that natural disasters are closely linked to changes
in climate patterns, there is increasing need to study the impact of climate change on
marginalized communities living in disaster-prone areas.
Like many poor developing countries Pakistan is the victim of climate change rather
than a contributor, with its per capita emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) falling far
below the global average. The effects of climate change are being felt in many sectors
and in and across ecosystems with adverse impacts on natural resources and the
livelihoods that they support.
Pakistan is prone to a range of natural disasters, including cyclones, floods, drought,
intense rainfall, and earthquakes. In Pakistan 40%2 of the people are highly vulnerable
and are frequently exposed to multiple disasters. This exposure to vulnerability is
predicted to be exacerbated with impending impact of climate change. With variations
in rainfall patterns, storms, floods and drought are predicated to increase and reach new
locations, which had not earlier experienced them.
This study was commissioned with the aim of (i) reviewing community perceptions of
the impact of climate change and, (ii) based on future climate change projections,
recommending coping mechanisms for affected communities. For the purpose of this
study, three geographically and climatically diverse districts were selected: (i) Badin
(Sindh), (ii) Rajanpur (Punjab), and (iii) Khuzdar (Balochistan). Within these disaster-
prone areas, three coastal villages in Badin, three flood-prone villages close to the Indus
River in Rajanpur, and three intense drought-prone areas in Khuzdar were surveyed to
assess community perception of the impact of climate change.
1
There is ultimately nothing "natural" about disasters. Droughts, floods etc are hazards; whether
they create “disasters” i.e. considerable loss of life and/or assets, depends on many factors,
especially human vulnerability. Even the occurrence of droughts and floods is only partially
“natural” (e.g. triggered by extreme rainfall) – their severity and duration is linked to many
socioeconomic or political factors like land and water use and management etc.
2
Human Development in South Asia 2006 published by Mahbob-ul-Haq Human Development
Through its assessment reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
projects different scenarios of climate change at global and regional levels. The Global
change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)– a Pakistani Research organization has also
conducted research in Pakistan based on historical weather data, investigating past
trends and modeling projections based on regional climate models. This report study the
findings assessed and analysed by IPCC for South Asia including Pakistan. The results
show a strong correlation among the IPCC’s predictions, patterns modeled by Pakistani
research organizations, and data gathered from community-level surveys conducted in
the three selected areas. The results of a survey tool developed and administered after
community-level pre-testing show that communities have experienced significant
changes in climate as modeled by research organizations in Pakistan.
The findings of these community surveys clearly shows that environmental problems in
the three districts under study are serious & growing, and climate change is
exacerbating them or is likely to exacerbate them in the future. The predicted impacts of
climate change will increase existing vulnerabilities, inequalities and exposure to
hazards. Poor and marginalized communities tend to be those most vulnerable to
climate change and least able to cope with weather-related disasters because of lack of
access to information and resources to reduce their risk. Communities interviewed
reported hotter temperatures and more erratic rain, and that crop-growing season has
been shortened with worrying implications for food security