How will the Corona virus pandemic( second wave) and the results of five state
elections( Kerala, Tamilnadu, West Bengal, Pudducherry and Assam) will impact incumbent
government’s chances of re-election in 2024? Elaborate the following in 500 words.
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OPINION
The five lessons from five assembly polls
Every party can rejoice in its share of victories, but what will shape the future of Indian politics is the political response to the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic
By Rahul Verma
PUBLISHED ON MAY 02, 2021 10:21 PM IST
The loss in West Bengal is going to pinch the BJP, as this was an emotional project for the party. A victory would have given the party an ideological boost and narrative advantage till 2024 (AP)
Election results in India are often considered indicative of future politics. But, not this time, as it hides, more than it reveals. This is because there is no national mood connecting the results of elections to the assemblies of four states and one Union Territory. It can be, more precisely, viewed as a state-by-state verdict. In three states (Assam, West Bengal, and Kerala), incumbents returned with emphatic victories, and in two states, incumbents lost (Tamil Nadu and Puducherry). Neither the victory nor losses of the incumbents can be attributed to the governance factor alone. What, then, are the key messages from the results?
First, it would be a mistake to read the results as a verdict against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Centre owing to its failure in handling the Covid-19 crisis. Polling in states, other than Bengal, were over before the situation turned from bad to worse. And the scale of the Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s victory in Bengal suggests that the party was ahead even in the first five phases when normal campaigning took place. The BJP may well pay a political price in the future as the Covid-19 crisis continues to unfold. But a lot will depend on popular perceptions of how different parties responded in a time of crisis. Either way, this election was not a referendum on Covid-19 management.