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EXPLAIN
Techniques of forecasting:
1. Survey Method
2. Opinion Poll
3. Business Barometers
4. Time Series Analysis
5. Regression
6. Analysis Input-Output analysis
Answers
Explanation:
1) Sample Survey Method: Under this method, a sample of potential buyers are chosen scientifically and only those chosen are interviewed. End-use Method: It is especially used for forecasting the demand of the inputs. Under this method, the final users i.e. the consuming industries and other sectors are identified.
2)An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.
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1. Survey Method:
Field survey can be conducted to collect information regarding the attitude of people. For example, information may be collected through surveys about the savings habits of the public. Both quantitative and qualitative information may be collected. Such information is useful for proper forecasting. The demand for both new and existing products can be forecast through survey method.
2. Sales Person’s Opinion:
The sales force of the existing product can be forecast with the help of opinions of sales persons. Sales persons are very closer to the consumers and/or customers. So, the opinions expressed by the sales persons are of great value. A reasonable sales trend can be predicted based on the opinions of sales persons.
3. Business Barometers:
Index Numbers are used to measure the state of condition of business between two or more periods. Business trend, seasonal fluctuations of a business and cyclical movements are studied with the help of index numbers. Index numbers indicate the direction in which the business is going on. Besides these index numbers give some advance signals for likely changes in the future.
For example, a pay rise to the government employees, industrial and agricultural employees may reflect higher sales volume and higher income after some time. Thus, it is very easy to forecast the future trend of a business with the help of business activity index number. However, index numbers do not give an assurance for success. The reason is that all types of business do not follow the general trend.
4.Time Series Analysis:
In time series analysis, the future is forecast on the assumption that past activities are good indicators of future activities. In other words, future activities are the extension of the past. This method is quite accurate where future is expected to be similar to the past. Time series analysis can be applied. Only when the data are available for a long period of time. In a nutshell, forecasts are based on the assumption that the business conditions affecting its steady growth or decline are reasonably expected to remain unchanged in the future.
5. Regression Analysis:
Regression analysis is used to find out the effect of changes of the relative movements of two or more inter-related variables. In other words, a change in one variable has an effect on the other inter-related variables. In the modern business conditions and situations, numbers of factors are responsible for the changes made in the variables. Here, Regression analysis helps in isolating the effects of such factors to a great extent.
For example, if we take two inter-related variables viz cost of production and profit, there will be a direct relationship prevailing between these two variables. It is possible to have an estimate of profit on the basis of cost of production, provided other things remain the same. In this way, forecasting can be made.
6. Input and Output Analysis:
Under this method, a forecast can be made if the relationship between input and output is known. At the same time, the input requirements can be forecast on the basis of output. In other words, input can be determined on the basis of need of output. For example, power requirement of the country can be forecast on the basis of its present usage rate in various sectors viz., industry, transport, household etc., and on the basis of how the power requirements of these various sectors will increase in future. This is possible. The reason is that various sectors of economy are interrelated. Besides this, the prevailing inter relationship among the various sectors of the economy can be well established.
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