I need to write a paragraph on is china a friend or foe
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China and India today represent the world’s two largest and fastest-growing economies. Even the global economic crisis has not slowed their rapid pace of development, which has triggered internal and external challenges for both nations. Yet, even as China and India increasingly collaborate in regional and global fora, they are experiencing frequent and sustained tensions. In the first of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy’s China-South Asia Dialogue series, Professor Swaran Singh of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi visited the Carnegie-Tsinghua center to discuss current and future relations between India and China. The event was moderated by Carnegie's Lora Saalman.
ECONOMIC TIES
China-India relations are defined by a number of key issues, including sustained economic growth, energy procurement, climate change, and perennial U.S. regional presence, argued Singh.
GDP Growth: China and India’s per capita GDP were once very similar, but current trends predict China’s GDP will match the United States by 2030, while India’s GDP will only reach this milestone in 2050. Population numbers, not technology, remain the key to both countries’ increasing influence. Singh added that since China and India have both weathered the economic recession better than the United States, the international community may call on both nations to share the global security burden, as U.S. defense budgets are likely to decrease.
Trade Imbalance: China and India continue to face impediments in moving from bilateral trade to mutual investment. The existing large trade imbalance between the two countries causes tension, Singh said. Trade primarily occurs via sea-lanes, while the border between China and India remains underutilized, marked by harsh terrain and underlying border disputes. None of the three major trade points at the China-India border has been a commercial success, although the trade point at Nathu La, which sits at a population center at Tibet’s traditional crossroads, has some potential.
Climate Change: China and India engaged in unprecedented coordination during the Copenhagen climate change conference in 2009, Singh said. This cooperation has been followed by frequent four-party talks among China, India, Brazil, and Mexico. Singh argued that energy has increasingly become a “currency of power” and nations with energy resources to export, or who have sufficient energy and infrastructure for their population, are seeing a substantial increase in prosperity. Obama’s willingness to push forward such trends, including on a nuclear-free world, reflect the shift away from the currency of nuclear weapons to that of nuclear energy.
Devaluation of Nuclear Weapons: Concerns over climate change have helped both countries move toward the “devaluation of nuclear weapons,” Singh said, with norms serving as “enforcers of change.” Yet, he also added that “quick-fix regimes” and “ad hoc-ism” are models that are increasingly inadequate for dealing with the nuclear system. India tends to be more “norm-based” in its multilateralism, while China’s multilateralism also remains more “power-based,” argued Singh.
CHINA-SOUTH ASIA RELATIONS
Singh described how India has been traditionally sensitive to the presence of other major powers in South Asia. China’s relationship with India’s smaller neighbors, especially Pakistan, has been an issue of concern for India in the past and will remain so in the near future. One of the Chinese audience members noted that China has a responsibility vis-à-vis South Asia and must remain careful not to take sides between India and Pakistan.
India’s South Asia: A Chinese audience member asked about the level to which India perceives South Asia as “India’s South Asia.” China’s growing footprint in South Asia—particularly its efforts to protect sea-lanes within the Indian Ocean—has caused some tension in the bilateral relationship. Singh explained China’s growing relations with India’s neighbors—combined with its role as the region’s largest investor—provide China with increased leverage in South Asia. While India does not perceive South Asia as belonging in some way to India, Singh said, there are concerns in New Delhi about China’s relations with India’s neighbors.
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