Question

If i have the following marbles
Green 3
Red 4
White 5
Blue 8
What is the possibility that I will pick a blue one without looking?

Answer 1

3+4+5+8=20
8/20=40/100
You have 40% chance of getting a blue t-shirt.

Answer 2

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Note that there are 16 total marbles. A is simply a set of sequential events. On the first, you have 10/16 chances to draw a red. Supposing this red is not replaced, the chance of drawing a second red will be 9/15; therefore, the probability of A is (10/16) * (9/15) = 0.375. Event B is translated into 2 events: Blue + (White or Red) or (White or Red) + Blue. The probabilities of each of these events, added together would be (2/16) * (14/15) + (14/16) * (2/15) = 0.2333333333; therefore, A is more probable