If nights were to be six months what would have changed in our lives
Answers
We are all living through an experience that is unprecedented. It arrived on us with a suddenness that did not allow much time for preparation. The world now seems to be divided into two distinct eras—BC (before covid-19) and CE (covid-19 era).
The CE experience is unfamiliar and nothing in our living memories or lessons from history has prepared us for it. Yes, there was the Spanish Flu in 1918, but that’s so long ago that there is no visceral memory.
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Trying to make some sense of the future helps us deal with the constant state of uncertainty we find ourselves in today. To complicate matters, past data is not of much use in this case. So, the future is probably best understood as alternative scenarios or stories.
What would those stories be? Our search led us to a set of six macro trends. The future stories will unfold on the basis of the actual impact and intensity of these trends. While some changes may be temporary, many could become long-term trends that impact society at a structural level. Of course, with India being a vast subcontinent living in multiple centuries simultaneously, many of these will be nascent at present, with the potential to become mainstream later on.
A firewalled world
From a boundaryless world, we have moved rapidly to one that is firewalled at multiple levels. The key driver here is fear and mistrust of the outsider. The closest level of fencing starts with the home, extends to the neighbourhood/gated community and may continue to expand in ever widening circles to city, district, state and country.
Welcome to the post-global world where there could be a twist in the James Bond narrative of the Cold War. Politically, we could see an erosion of globalization and a return of protectionism. Friction between superpowers and power blocs may make a comeback. On the economic side, markets will struggle to live without export-fuelled growth and global supply chains. This could lead to a push towards “self-reliance" and smaller trading blocs and a return of the 1960’s and 1970’s pattern of global trade.
Simultaneously, the social narrative could move towards trading freedom for safety, with greater powers vested in various authorities. From central to micro-local bodies, citizens could continue to surrender a fair amount of individual initiative for the dubious comfort of community safety.
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Multiple features of society stand to be impacted by this as the world shrinks into smaller circles. Public transport, large-scale events like concerts, stadium sports, election rallies, marriages, religious festivals and smaller pleasures like going to the movies may no longer be taken for granted. The circle of those whom we trust will probably whittle down to a handful, impacting our daily interactions beginning with, for example, the many daily helpers that we in India take for granted.
The post-touch world
The basic human impulse of touch is now suspect. The key driver is the fear of infection. While currently this takes the form of wearing gloves or sanitizing everything obsessively, systemic solutions for this too may emerge.
Can contactless supply chains then be far behind? Mechanization of manufacturing has already begun and is poised to integrate forward into delivery as well. Amazon had experimented with drone delivery last year. Between that and driverless cars as delivery mechanisms and an army of robots that can perform everything from surgery to embroidery, the end-to-end chain stands to become contactless.