In a town struck with the coronavirus epidemic, 20% of the population got infected in the first month while 80% were healthy. In the next month, 20% of sick people recovered and 20% of healthy people were infected. What fraction of the people remained healthy?
Answers
Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.
Answer:
Today is my birthday, and I’ve been given a very good gift from DRC, from my own continent Africa. We have now had two weeks without a single reported case of Ebola, and there are currently no patients receiving treatment.
This is very good news not just for me, but for the whole world – I remember how the whole world was worried about Ebola – and especially for the thousands of health workers who have sacrificed so much in the fight against Ebola, and for making sure we’re where we are. But as one epidemic looks like ending, one front of the fight closing, another is becoming increasingly complex.
There is now a total of 90,893 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3110 deaths.
In the past 24 hours, China reported 129 cases, the lowest number of cases since the 20th of January.
Outside China, 1848 cases were reported in 48 countries. 80% of those cases are from just three countries: the Republic of Korea, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Italy.
12 new countries have reported their first cases, and there are now 21 countries with one case.
122 countries have not reported any cases.
The actions these newly-affected countries take today will be the difference between a handful of cases and a larger cluster.
We understand that people are afraid and uncertain. Fear is a natural human response to any threat, especially when it’s a threat we don’t completely understand.
But as we get more data, we are understanding this virus, and the disease it causes, more and more.
This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.