In many countries, the population of 15 or younger age group increasing at rapid rate. What could be the current and future effects?
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Answer:
After the world population increased more than 400% over the 20th century, population growth has slowed considerably: The fastest world population growth rate was already reached in the late 1960s, and it has been falling since. While the world population increased by 2% annually in the late 60s it has now slowed to an increase of just about 1%.
There are three primary determinants of global population growth: mortality, fertility, and population momentum. The global improvement falling mortality – seen in increasing life expectancy around the world and falling child mortality in every country – contribute to an increase of the world population. The decline of fertility rates on the other hand, – the number of children per woman – reduces population growth. The global average fertility rate was 5 children per woman until the end of the 1960s and has halved since then.
The UN projections for the global population growth rates, which have been produced since the 1950s, have a good track record in projecting the size of the global population as we will show in the last part of this entry.
Empirical View
Explanation:
Answer:
The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. With roughly 83 million people being added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline.
The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, provides a comprehensive review of global demographic trends and prospects for the future. The information is essential to guide policies aimed at achieving the new Sustainable Development Goals.
Europe has been an exception to this trend in recent years, with total fertility increasing from 1.4 births per woman in 2000-2005 to 1.6 in 2010-2015.
More and more countries now have fertility rates below the level required for the replacement of successive generations (roughly 2.1 births per woman), and some have been in this situation for several decades. During 2010-2015, fertility was below the replacement level in 83 countries comprising 46 % of the world’s population. The ten most populous countries in this group are China, the United States of America, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Japan, Viet Nam, Germany, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand, and the United Kingdom (in order of population size).
Lower fertility leads also to ageing populations
The report highlights that a reduction in the fertility level results not only in a slower pace of population growth but also in an older population.
Compared to 2017, the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than double by 2050 and to more than triple by 2100, rising from 962 million globally in 2017 to 2.1 billion in 2050 and 3.1 billion in 2100.
In Europe, 25% of the population is already aged 60 years or over. That proportion is projected to reach 35% in 2050 and to remain around that level in the second half of the century. Populations in other regions are also projected to age significantly over the next several decades and continuing through 2100. Africa, for example, which has the youngest age distribution of any region, is projected to experience a rapid ageing of its population. Although the African population will remain relatively young for several more decades, the percentage of its population aged 60 or over is expected to rise from 5% in 2017 to around 9% in 2050, and then to nearly 20% by the end of the century.
Although all regions shared in the recent rise of life expectancy, the greatest gains were for Africa, where life expectancy rose by 6.6 years between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015 after rising by less than 2 years over the previous decade.
The gap in life expectancy at birth between the least developed countries and other developing countries narrowed from 11 years in 2000-2005 to 8 years in 2010-2015. Although differences in life expectancy across regions and income groups are projected to persist in future years, such differences are expected to diminish significantly by 2045-2050.