Question

Is there anyway using maths we can calculate how fast disease would spread in a country?

Answer 1

The mathematics of diseases is, of course, a data-driven subject. Although some purely theoretical work has been done, the key element in this field of research is being able to link mathematical models and data. Case reports from doctors provides us with one of the most detailed sources of biological data; we often know the number of weekly disease cases for a variety of communities over many decades. This data also contains the signature of social effects, such as changes in birth rate or the increased mixing rates during school terms. Therefore, a comprehensive picture of disease dynamics requires a variety of mathematical tools, from model creation to solving differential equations to statistical analysis.