Lockdown ĞÔÖĐ or bāđ
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Economic Times Online conducted a readers' poll to gauge the mood of the public in a country that has been under a crippling lockdown for over 40 days. Now that the wheels have begun clacking again in factories and plants, we present here the insights gleaned from almost 13,000 of India's best-informed readers of business news.
The survey basically sought to find out how readers thought India would eventually emerge from the coronavirus crisis. The broad themes covered included a SWOT analysis for the economy, things like what is helping India or what is making things worse, and most importantly, what lies ahead.
At a time when the situation appears more and more untenable even as India finds itself caught in the third phase of a sustained self-imposed blockade, here is a general idea of what is running through the mind of a country under siege.
Takeaways from a lost year
The virus has brought the Indian economy to new low after new low over the past six weeks. But many still appeared to think that a rapid turnaround was not out of the question. Only about 4% of survey respondents said that a quick economic recovery after lifting the lockdown was "not possible at all".
A majority of them — over 40% — said a quick recovery was "possible, but with riders". A big chunk of them (more then 32%) thought that 2020 was as good as lost, and that the economy should prep for a comeback in 2021.
The responses on the possibility of a quick recovery appeared to be a broad-based endorsement of Modi government's Covid-fighting strategy. According to as many as 53.8% survey participants, a 'decisive leadership' was the biggest factor on India's side at this critical juncture. The rest of the responses were evenly spread across (a) a proactive RBI, (b) less political squabbling and (c) benign oil prices.
As to which factors could complicate the economy's fight for survival, almost of third (32.4%) of respondents pointed to a possible second surge of the virus. Nearly 29% said they feared the consequences of a broken labour market. The rest were divided between non-recovery of global trade and deeply negative sentiment.
Sink or swim
According to 37% of the participants, the most likely scenario for India in the short term will be — 'recovery, but very tepid'. As many as 19% foresaw a deep recession amid a persisting virus attack. Just under 12% respondents thought Covid won't linger long and the economy would recover within the short term itself.
How the short, foreseeable term will pan out for India is going to depend on what steps are taken, well over 32% of our readers said. Among the steps that could be taken, the survey offered four — a tax break, a special budget, printing currency, and a special tax.
The matter of the need for a special Covid budget has divided economists. In our survey, more than half (53.6%) the total participants thought that such a budget would be the best possible way to speed up recovery. More than 24% backed tax breaks as the way to tide over the crisis. Over 15% thought printing money would be the best enabler for a turnaround.
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