long essay on India after 10 years ( including covid 19)
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The world is facing humanity’s biggest crisis since World War II. Almost every country has been affected by the devastating Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). An outbreak from China has gone everywhere. In the last few months, Corona’s epicentre has been shifted from China to Europe to the United States. Till date, over 1.5 million people had been affected by COVID-19 and about 80,000 people had died worldwide. Indirectly, billions of people have been suffering from the impact of the global pandemic of COVID-19. What is alarming is that the numbers likely stem from under-reporting, and may probably rise alarmingly in the weeks ahead if we factor in asymptomatic patients and rapid tests. Given that pandemic-driven crisis is constantly changing, countries are desperate to flattening the curve for COVID-19.
Undoubtedly, this Coronavirus has put the world economy at a major risk. Coronavirus ravages the economic foundations of world trade. Commentators have identified this outbreak as an outcome of hyper-globalisation or starting of de-globalisation. However, the world is going to face recession; and the global losses, according to some commentators, may exceed the World Wars I and II combined. At the same time, the falling world price of crude oil has added further anxieties. Several estimates are now available on the economic loss and post-COVID-19 growth path, and most of the estimates show that the world is already in an economic crisis.
South and Southeast Asian countries are no exception. They are heavily affected, health or otherwise. Countries are under full or partial lockdown for the last few weeks. It is a global challenge and a global response is called for. Flattening the COVID-19 curve together helps everyone in an inclusive manner. Unlike the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis, it is primarily a health crisis, which has given birth to an economic shock.
Meanwhile, the world order has been changing fast. Several theories are being postulated. Anti-globalisation rhetoric venom is now unfurled. In such unfolding “New Normal” of the world order, the consensus is that countries need to save the earth from the epidemic if we need to live together.
At the same time, countries shall undertake reform to strengthen the digital economy and e-commerce not only to manage the pandemic but also to facilitate trade. Trade barriers should not be allowed to happen in trade in goods and services particularly those feed the health science.
Among other measures, what South Asia countries shall do in the post-pandemic period is to provide additional solatium. For example, exporters and importers may be waived from customs bonds till the situation improves and trade pick up the momentum or faster payment of incentives to exporters or waving the interests on bank loans, etc. India’s SWIFT is a great example here. India’s trade partners shall work on interoperability of trade transaction digital interfaces such as SWIFT.
If crisis is prolonged, value chains, both regional and global, will break. This might be an opportunity for India to leapfrog its export. Is India ready to choose new markets? India may design a strategy to replace too much reliance on China for the imports, particularly Pharma APIs. Shifting the supply chains from China also offers FDI opportunities.
If WTO is unable to offer its due services on time, India may consider calling an international or regional dialogue to set up new trade standards and certifications for export and import in the post-Covid-19 period. It is difficult to reform inter-governmental organisations where India or other South Asian countries are minor stakeholders. But, it is not impossible.
In this time of crisis, countries follow Keynesianism to generate jobs for the community, which will then help to improve the aggregate demand, and the production. Growth may eventually happen if both rise. Since the onus is now on the government, the managed market economy should be allowed to work till the growth returns back.
This is the time of a medical emergency. Crisis time calls for togetherness and partnership. Countries have to work together while dealing with the crisis, particularly for the post-crisis recovery. India’s advantage is its leadership. Stable and strong leadership is in command. No event better demonstrates why a stronger network between countries is so vital to design a strategy for the entire Asian region.
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