MANAGING FOOD CRISIS IN INDIA UNDER COVID-19
EMERGENCY
5 to 7 pages report
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India has taken early action to limit the spread of COVID-19, ordering a 21-day nationwide lockdown for its population of 1.3 billion people starting March 25. The novel coronavirus has spread widely in India relatively recently compared to other countries, and the number of reported infections is low so far, with 5,274 cases and 149 deaths as of April 8. However, as COVID-19 cases are increasing fast, there is great concern about the disease’s potential spread and impact. India has to be ready for a possible surge. Testing should be expanded significantly. The government views the pattern of the spread of COVID-19 as similar to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, meaning the spread is unlikely to be uniform. After the 21-day period expires, it is planning to maintain the full lockdown in “hotspot” areas and relax it in other places...
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COVID-19 poses an extraordinary challenge for India—both for infectious disease control and for maintaining food security and livelihoods. As part of its response, India is adapting the world’s largest portfolio of food distribution and safety net programs to provide food to its poorest citizens. Devesh Roy and colleagues consider the implications of COVID-19 on food supply and suggest policy actions for both public programs and food markets.
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India’s huge population, its density, and very large numbers of poor present an extraordinary challenge for the country’s COVID-19 response, and the Indian government has imposed the largest lockdown in history: 1.3 billion people ordered to shelter in place for 21 days starting March 25. Even China, where the disease originated, ordered a total lockdown in just one area, Hubei Province (while imposing other restrictions throughout the country). Implementing a lockdown in a country of India’s scale is socially, economically, institutionally, and politically very demanding and disproportionately affects the poor, daily wage earners, and other marginalized groups.
Thus COVID-19 exposes a harsh reality: An inadequate and uneven safety net may leave many from these economically vulnerable groups without access to food and other services. This struggle is particularly acute for large numbers of informal sector workers—including self-employed, subcontracted laborers, small farmers, and landless workers. India’s informal sector employs 303 million; The workforces of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states are more than 80% informal, while even in advanced states like Maharashtra, that number is 70%. COVID-19 may push this group and their families into transient poverty.
The nature of the COVID-19 pandemic is unique. Shutting down many business operations, leaving people without work, is an integral part of efforts to “flatten the curve” of disease progression. Laid-off workers, particularly daily wage workers who are largely seasonal migrants will struggle to find employment. 9 million workers are estimated to move annually, though their total number was as high as 139 million in 2011. Coronavirus-related layoffs will disproportionately hit service workers in low-paying jobs as restaurants, malls, cafes, and shops shut their doors indefinitely.
For informal sector workers and rural poor, missing even a day’s earnings can make it difficult to buy basic food items, and joblessness extended over several days can mean economic ruin. As India witnesses large-scale reverse migration, with desperate migrants leaving cities amid lockdown and walking hundreds of miles towards their home villages, the prospect of economic devastation and new additions to rural poor—internal COVID refugees—looms large.
Yet compared to those of other countries at a similar income level, India’s social safety net is extensive. An elaborate array of programs exists to assist the poor, including the world’s largest food-based social program, the Public Distribution System (PDS), covering 800 million people. To respond quickly, India is utilizing these existing schemes and reshaping them to address the unique challenges from COVID-19.
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