Pakistan foreign policy and it's future in the light of Afghan war
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Three scenarios in Afghanistan are possible in the wake of the US military with-
drawal: negotiated settlement, civil war, or Taliban takeover. In each, the Taliban
is likely to emerge as the most influential party. How and how quickly it secures
its position, as well as how much funding the United States and partner nations
provide the Afghan government, will shape Afghanistan’s future. So, too, will the
extent of support the Taliban receives from external sources, principally Pakistan.
Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long history of tense relations defined by five
recurring drivers: sovereignty concerns, security interests, geopolitical dynam-
ics, cross-border ties, and connectivity and trade. Together, these dynamics will
shape future prospects for stability in Afghanistan and the broader region.
Given that conflict is almost certain to intensify after US and international forces
withdraw, battlefield developments will take center stage. The Afghanistan-
Pakistan relationship is likely to further deteriorate, and vitriol on both sides could
foreclose on any remaining opportunities to reach a negotiated settlement.
Bilateral ties will likewise influence security, political, and economic dynamics in
the medium to long term, either after the conflict reaches a stalemate or after a
new government takes shape.
Under such circumstances, a positive relationship with Pakistan could go a long
way in fostering stability and development. The opposite is a much likelier out-
come, however, given the deeply held grievances on both sides compounded
by the ongoing conflict.
By acknowledging and working to address one another’s security and sover-
eignty concerns patiently through dialogue, Afghanistan and Pakistan stand
the best chance of building on their cross-border ties for the benefit of regional