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While India has managed to slow down the spread of COVID-19 through what is perhaps the world's largest nationwide lockdown, the socio-economic fallout of the decision on the South Asian country of 1.3 billion has been devastating with livelihoods of tens of millions of migrant workers threatened.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this week announced a 270 billion U.S. dollars stimulus package, nearly 10 percent of the country's annual GDP, to kickstart the stalled economy while also hinting that the lockdown that began on March 25 will be extended beyond the current May 17 deadline, but with certain relaxations.
"The lockdown is only a postponing tool. It is not a permanent strategy for dealing with the virus," Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Washington-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, told CGTN Digital on Thursday in an exclusive interview via Skype.
"So whether in India or nearly every other country, including probably New Zealand, which has no cases right now, there is no long-term way of escaping this disease until a vaccine arrives… As per the current projections, the vaccine will not be available at scale till 2021-end and possibly 2022. We are talking about a scenario where the virus will continue to spread unless we continue to remain in constant lockdown. Because the minute you lift the lockdown, the virus will spread again," explained Laxminarayan, who is also a Senior Research Scholar at Princeton University.
Referring to the socio-economic stress that the mainly poor Indians are facing, he remarked: "This is the saddest part of the whole thing. We've managed to contain the virus, but we've not managed to contain the side effects of the lockdown. And the side effects are at every level. It is at the high level of companies, the economy, it's about small, medium businesses, it is small traders, and it is migrant workers and farmers."
He, however, stressed that India's focus has been one of saving lives ahead of the economy. "In that spirit, let's make sure that no one else dies of other causes, such as hunger or other diseases besides COVID-19, and try to get rid of this epidemic as quickly as possible either through to a vaccine or to a stage where there is herd immunity. And once we get to that stage, then we can try to recover the economy and go back to life as normal, which will take a few years for sure.
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