Population surgery to identify human phenotypic character
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The population is expanding and aging. According to the US Census Bureau, the domestic population will increase 7.9% by 2010, and 17.0% by 2020. The fastest growing segment of this population consists of individuals over the age of 65; their numbers are expected to increase 13.3% by 2010 and 53.2% by 2020.
Methods:
Data on the age-specific rates of surgical procedures were obtained from the 1996 National Hospital Discharge Survey and the National Survey of Ambulatory Surgery. These procedure rates were combined with corresponding relative value units from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The result quantifies the amount of surgical work used by an average individual within specific age groups (<15 years old, 15–44 years old, 45–64 years old, 65+ years old). This estimate of work per capita was combined with population forecasts to predict future use of surgical services.
Results:
Based on the assumption that age-specific per capita use of surgical services will remain constant, we predict significant increases (14–47%) in the amount of work in all surgical fields. These increases vary widely by specialty.
Conclusions:
The aging of the US population will result in significant growth in the demand for surgical services. Surgeons need to develop strategies to manage an increased workload without sacrificing quality of care.
The population is expanding and aging. According to the US Census Bureau, the domestic population will increase 7.9% by 2010, and 17.0% by 2020. The fastest growing segment of this population consists of individuals over the age of 65; their numbers are expected to increase 13.3% by 2010 and 53.2% by 2020. Two main factors are responsible for these forecasts. First, we are living longer; life expectancy has increased from 66.7 years for individuals born in 1946 to 76.1 years for those born in 1996.1Second, the baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) are a wave of population density that will begin to hit retirement age in 2011.2
Older individuals require more medical services relative to their younger counterparts. The National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) reported that in 1999, patients aged 65 years or older comprised 12% of the population, but constituted 40% of hospital discharges and 48% of days of inpatient care.3 As the proportion of elderly patients in the population increases, the medical system will face new challenges. Will there be enough surgeons to meet the increased demand for surgical services?
The last decade has been notable for a perception of balance with regard to the physician supply relative to demand. Against this calm background, we sought to isolate and predict the effect of the aging population on the use of surgical services and the need for surgeons. We hypothesized that the surgical workload will increase significantly over the next 2 decades due in large part to the aging of the US population. Toward evaluating this hypothesis, we employed an approach based upon historical patterns of care. Data from national surveys of medical and surgical services were used to establish a profile of age-specific rates of surgical use. This profile was then used to model the impact of forecasted population shifts on surgical work.
Methods:
Data on the age-specific rates of surgical procedures were obtained from the 1996 National Hospital Discharge Survey and the National Survey of Ambulatory Surgery. These procedure rates were combined with corresponding relative value units from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The result quantifies the amount of surgical work used by an average individual within specific age groups (<15 years old, 15–44 years old, 45–64 years old, 65+ years old). This estimate of work per capita was combined with population forecasts to predict future use of surgical services.
Results:
Based on the assumption that age-specific per capita use of surgical services will remain constant, we predict significant increases (14–47%) in the amount of work in all surgical fields. These increases vary widely by specialty.
Conclusions:
The aging of the US population will result in significant growth in the demand for surgical services. Surgeons need to develop strategies to manage an increased workload without sacrificing quality of care.
The population is expanding and aging. According to the US Census Bureau, the domestic population will increase 7.9% by 2010, and 17.0% by 2020. The fastest growing segment of this population consists of individuals over the age of 65; their numbers are expected to increase 13.3% by 2010 and 53.2% by 2020. Two main factors are responsible for these forecasts. First, we are living longer; life expectancy has increased from 66.7 years for individuals born in 1946 to 76.1 years for those born in 1996.1Second, the baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) are a wave of population density that will begin to hit retirement age in 2011.2
Older individuals require more medical services relative to their younger counterparts. The National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) reported that in 1999, patients aged 65 years or older comprised 12% of the population, but constituted 40% of hospital discharges and 48% of days of inpatient care.3 As the proportion of elderly patients in the population increases, the medical system will face new challenges. Will there be enough surgeons to meet the increased demand for surgical services?
The last decade has been notable for a perception of balance with regard to the physician supply relative to demand. Against this calm background, we sought to isolate and predict the effect of the aging population on the use of surgical services and the need for surgeons. We hypothesized that the surgical workload will increase significantly over the next 2 decades due in large part to the aging of the US population. Toward evaluating this hypothesis, we employed an approach based upon historical patterns of care. Data from national surveys of medical and surgical services were used to establish a profile of age-specific rates of surgical use. This profile was then used to model the impact of forecasted population shifts on surgical work.
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