Question

Q.1 a) A manufacturer of critical components for two-wheelers in the automotive sector is interested in forecasting the trend of demand during the next year as a key input to its annual planning exercise. Information in the past sales is available for the last three years is in the below table. Extract the trend component of the time series data and use it f or predicting the future demand of the components.

Period

Actual Demand

Year 1: Q1

360

Year 1 : Q2

438

Year 1: Q3

359

Year 1: Q4

406

Year 2: Q1

393

Year 2: Q2

465

Year 2: Q3

387

Year 2: Q4

464

Year 3: Q1

505

Year 3: Q2

618

Year 3: Q3

443

Year 3: Q4

540




b) Further, extract the seasonal component and adjusted the forecast obtained in part a) for seasonality.



I have completed the first part, just need the second one, please

Answer 1

Answer:

the smallest prime number is

Answer 2

yt = 346.621 + 15.622*t

   

Explanation:

• Looking at the data we can tell that the trend is following the equation

                                    $y_t = 346.621 + 15.622(t)$

• where "t" is the quarter-number (that is to say that Yer=ar 4 Quarter 1, for example, will be t=13

• Now we can put the value of t into the formula to get the answer. The future demand of the components is:

                                        $\begin{center}\begin{tabular}{| c | c |}Y4 Q1 & 549.712 \\ Y4 Q2 & 565.334\\ Y4 Q3 & 580.957\\ Y4 Q4 & 596.579\\ \end{tabular}\end{center}$